Climate Adaptive Energy Management Framework for High Temperature Power System Operations

Abstract

High-temperature conditions, particularly during prolonged heatwaves exacerbated by climate change, impose severe stresses on power systems by simultaneously surging electricity demand for cooling and degrading the performance of generation assets, transmission infrastructure, and associated equipment. Ambient temperature rises elevate air-conditioning loads, often by 30-50% or more in affected regions, while reducing overhead line ampacity through increased conductor resistance and sag, lowering thermal generation efficiency due to cooling limitations, and decreasing solar photovoltaic output via elevated panel temperatures. Traditional energy management systems, reliant on static assumptions or limited weather integration, struggle to maintain reliability, economic efficiency, and resilience under these dynamic extremes. A climate-adaptive energy management framework addresses these challenges by embedding real time and forecasted meteorological data—ambient temperature, wind speed, solar irradiance— directly into operational decision-making processes, leveraging dynamic line ratings (DLR), temperature-dependent optimal power flow (OPF), demand response, energy storage coordination, and advanced forecasting. This research paper develops a comprehensive multi-layer framework encompassing short-term adaptive dispatch, medium-term unit commitment with climate informed scenarios, and longer-term planning integration. It formulates mixed-integer linear or nonlinear programming models that incorporate conductor heat balance equations for DLR, temperature-adjusted generation limits and loads, and multi-objective optimization balancing costs, emissions, and resilience metrics such as unserved energy or voltage stability margins. Through integration of machine learning for uncertainty modeling, reinforcement learning for adaptive control, and grid-enhancing technologies, the framework demonstrates potential for reduced operational costs, minimized outage risks, and enhanced renewable integration during high-temperature events. Case studies drawing from recent heatwave analyses and literature on climate-resilient operations illustrate quantitative benefits, including lower peak loads via precooling strategies, unlocked transmission capacity through DLR, and improved system flexibility. 
As global temperatures continue to rise, this climate-adaptive approach shifts power system  operations from reactive to proactive, supporting decarbonization goals while safeguarding  reliability and public health in an era of intensifying heat extremes.